Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960’s has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. Most attention in the literature is given to crop yields (Guiteras, 2009; Fishman, 2012; Auffhammer et al, 2011) and their ability to withstand precipitation shocks, in the presence of irrigation (Fishman, 2012). However, there remains limited evidence about how natural weather variability and realized irrigation outcomes are related. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world’s most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed crop-wise agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years from 1970-2004 for 311 districts across 19 major agricultural states in India. The source of agricultural data comes from the Village Dynamics in South Asia database at the International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). Weather data is sourced from the only long term continental scale daily observationally gridded precipitation and temperature dataset called APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation- Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the Water Resources), that captures the spatial extent of the monsoon across the Himalayas, South and South-East Asia, and the Middle East in great detail. We use panel data approaches to control for unobserved and omitted variables that can confound the true impacts of weather variability on irrigation. Exploiting the exogenous inter-annual variability in the monsoon, our multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability but differentially so for shallow dug wells and deep tube wells. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas using three different bias-corrected climate model projections of monsoon climate for the years 2010 – 2050 under the strongest warming scenario ( business as usual scenario) RCP-8.5 from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, such as the Water Balance Model, that tracks water use and exchange between the ground, atmosphere, runoff and stream networks. This enables us to quantify supply of water required to meet irrigation needs from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, as well as unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. Preliminary results show that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements. By combining the strengths of the economic and hydrology components, this work highlights potential sustainable or unsustainable water use trajectories that different regions within India will face

Reactivity-Dependent PCR: Direct, Solution-Phase in Vitro Selection for Bond Formation

In vitro selection is a key component of efforts to discover functional nucleic acids and small molecules from libraries of DNA, RNA, and DNA-encoded small molecules. Such selections have been widely used to evolve RNA and DNA catalysts and, more recently, to discover new reactions from DNA-encoded libraries of potential substrates. While effective, current strategies for selections of bond-forming and bond-cleaving reactivity are generally indirect, require the synthesis of biotin-linked substrates, and involve multiple solution-phase and solid-phase manipulations. In this work we report the successful development and validation of reactivity-dependent PCR (RDPCR), a new method that more directly links bond formation or bond cleavage with the amplification of desired sequences and that obviates the need for solid-phase capture, washing, and elution steps. We show that RDPCR can be used to select for bond formation in the context of reaction discovery and for bond cleavage in the context of protease activity profiling.Chemistry and Chemical Biolog

Swimming against the tide: A case study of an integrated social studies department

A recent trend in developed countries’ school curricula has been the transition from disciplinary to generic forms of knowledge, resulting in an emphasis on interdisciplinary organisation and more active forms of learning. Subject specialists are increasingly expected to demonstrate how their subject interconnects and equips pupils with key life skills. Such a change requires a major cultural shift and has been controversial, particularly in Scotland where Curriculum for Excellence, the latest curriculum reform, has seen this debate re-emerge. A detailed empirical case study of one secondary school Social Studies department that has already negotiated these shifts is presented. The case study provides insights into how school and department structures and cultures conducive to a more integrated approach have been developed. Leadership, increased opportunities for teachers to exercise greater autonomy in their work, sources of impetus and support for innovation, and the co-construction of meaning through dialogue are important themes in this process. This case study connects with current policy and provides an insight into strategies that other schools might employ when seeking to embed integrative practices. The department is identified as a significant locus for innovation and one which appears to challenge the norm

Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB 3 GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field Bz observations at L1.The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast

(Certified) Humane Violence? Animal Production, the Ambivalence of Humanizing the Inhumane, and What International Humanitarian Law Has to Do with It

The chapter draws a comparison with the self-certifying of production methods as ‘humane’ or animal-friendly in the labelling of animal products—that is, according to companies’ own self-imposed codes of conduct. It likens the idea of humanizing animal slaughter, factory farms, and other forms of production to the notion of humanizing warfare. Like international humanitarian law (IHL), animal welfare law is marked by the tension inherent in its attempt to humanize innately inhumane practices. Given these parallels, the analysis of animal welfare law might benefit from existing insights into the potential and limits of IHL. Both areas of law endorse a principle of ‘humanity’ while arguably facilitating and legitimizing the use of violence, and might thereby ultimately perpetuate the suffering of living beings. The implicit justification of violence percolating from the IHL-like animal ‘protection’ laws could only be outweighed by complementing this body of law with a ius contra bellum for animals

In Vitro Selection of a DNA-Templated Small-Molecule Library Reveals a Class of Macrocyclic Kinase Inhibitors

DNA-templated organic synthesis enables the translation of DNA sequences into synthetic small-molecule libraries suitable for in vitro selection. Previously, we described the DNA-templated multistep synthesis of a 13 824-membered small-molecule macrocycle library. Here, we report the discovery of small molecules that modulate the activity of kinase enzymes through the in vitro selection of this DNA-templated small-molecule macrocycle library against 36 biomedically relevant protein targets. DNA encoding selection survivors was amplified by PCR and identified by ultra-high-throughput DNA sequencing. Macrocycles corresponding to DNA sequences enriched upon selection against several protein kinases were synthesized on a multimilligram scale. In vitro assays revealed that these macrocycles inhibit (or activate) the kinases against which they were selected with IC50 values as low as 680 nM. We characterized in depth a family of macrocycles enriched upon selection against Src kinase, and showed that inhibition was highly dependent on the identity of macrocycle building blocks as well as on backbone conformation. Two macrocycles in this family exhibited unusually strong Src inhibition selectivity even among kinases closely related to Src. One macrocycle was found to activate, rather than inhibit, its target kinase, VEGFR2. Taken together, these results establish the use of DNA-templated synthesis and in vitro selection to discover small molecules that modulate enzyme activities, and also reveal a new scaffold for selective ATP-competitive kinase inhibition.Chemistry and Chemical Biolog

Clinically Unapparent Infantile Thiamin Deficiency in Vientiane, Laos

Infantile beriberi, or clinical thiamin (vitamin B1) deficiency in infants, is a forgotten disease in Asia, where 100 years ago it was a major public health problem. Infants with this deficiency, commonly aged ∼ 2–3 months, present in cardiac failure but usually rapidly improve if given thiamin injections. It remains relatively common in Vientiane, Lao PDR (Laos), probably because of prolonged intra- and post-partum food avoidance behaviours. Clinical disease may be the tip of an iceberg with subclinical thiamin deficiency contributing to sickness in infants without overt clinical beriberi. We therefore recruited 778 sick infants admitted during one year at Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, without clinical evidence of beriberi, and performed erythrocyte transketolase (ETK) assays. 13.4 % of infants had basal ETK<0.59 micromoles/min/gHb suggesting biochemical thiamin deficiency. Mortality was 5.5% but, among infants ≥2 months old, mortality was higher in those with basal ETK<0.59 micromoles/min/gHb (3/47, 6.4%) than in those with basal ETK≥0.59 micromoles/min/gHb (1/146, 0.7%) (P = 0.045, relative risk = 9.32 (95%CI 0.99 to 87.5)). We conclude that clinically unapparent thiamin deficiency is common among sick infants (≥2 months old) admitted to hospital in Vientiane. This may contribute to mortality and a low clinical threshold for providing thiamin to sick infants may be needed